JOURNEY OF THE SOUL AFTER DEATH REINCARNATION AND SCIENCE BEHIND HINDUISM

HINDU CUSTOMS, TRADITIONS AND FESTIVALS – A WAY OF BRIDGING SPIRITUALITY AND SCIENCE

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF DHASHA AVATHAAR WITH DARWIN THEORY OF EVOULUTION

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF DHASHA AVATHAAR WITH DARWIN THEORY OF EVOULUTION

Vedas and Puranas constitutes important sources of Hindu religion. Vishnu Purana primarily centers around Lord Vishnu and his avatars. Hindu’s mythology Dashavatar, the embodiment of Lord Vishnu, tells about ten incarnations in which the divine preserves cosmic order and brings the universe back into harmony. While, Darwin's hypothesis natural selection is based on variation and adaptation to external conditions, and is the process by which species change over time. Darwin outlined his theories on natural selection and evolution in his book “On the Origin of Species”, published in1859. There are interesting similarities between the explanations for the diversity of life on Earth that can be found when comparing Lord Vishnu's Dashavatar with Darwin's theory of evolution. Both highlight the rich fabric of various intellectual and cultural traditions that influence our world view and aid humanity in its quest to understand existence. Darwin's theory of evolution and the Geological Time Scale both identify distinct phases in the history of humans, starting with aquatic life and progressing through invertebrates, vertebrates, and ultimately modern humans. Dashavatar of Lord Vishnu in Hindu Scripture has a more developed theory of evolution than the one proposed by 17th-century English Scientist Charles Darwin. Westerners thought revolved around the evolution of the man. But in Dashavatar by the time of ‘Vaman Avatar’, we became human beings, finally comes Rama, a perfect human being and then comes Krishna, a more knowledgeable, logical, and more of a politician. This evolution goes on ..., our sages and saints thought beyond evolution. In Hindu Religion, Garuda Purana tells what will happen after death. Kauravas were born due to stem cells - test tube technologies and knowledge of well guided missiles was available in India thousands of years ago. Charles Darwin was born in Shrewsbury, Shropshire, on February 12, 1809, and died at Down House Kent, on April 19, 1882. According to his theories, “all species have a common ancestor, new species arise from pre-existing ones, and species can change over time”. According to this hypothesis, each species has a distinct set of heritable (genetic) differences from its common ancestor that have developed progressively over incredibly long epochs. A multi-level "tree" connecting all living things is created by repeated branching events, in which new species split off from a common ancestor. He travelled in the HMS Beagle (British Royal Navy Ship famous for carrying naturalist Charles Darwin) on a survey mission from 1831 to 1836, arriving at harbours in Australia, South America, and the southern tip of Africa. Darwin had the chance to research and inventory the indigenous flora and fauna at every location the voyage stopped. Over a period of five years, the ship travelled nonstop between islands, where he conducted studies on the local’s customs, wildlife, flowers, fruits, and fossils. He meticulously studied and recorded every observation in his journals, gathering a sizable collection of fossils, creatures, and flowers from Falkland Island and the Galapagos Islands. This Paper is an attempt to study and analyse the comparison between Hindu Dashavatar and Charles Darwin’s Evolution Theory. Charles Darwin after returning to England from Falkland Island and the Galapagos Islands, on October 2nd, 1836, he shared all of his observations and fossil finds with his good friends the botanists, zoologists, natural scientists, and geologists. They all agreed that "Life evolved in water in the form of simple single cell creature, over hundreds of year, this single cell evolved into complex multicellular organism". Through gradual dietary changes and morphological changes, the aquatic animals gradually began to shift from their aquatic home to one on the Earth. They had first transformed into creatures with 100 feet, such as centipedes, and then into creatures with four legs, and lastly into humans with two feet. Numerous alterations are also observed in humans: from little, armoured man to sentient, intelligent man. Darwin's idea is straight forward between 1830 and 1835, he noted in the Galapagos Islands in Latin America that life originated in water. Every species on the planet, including fish, flowers, bananas, and birds, share common origins. They battled relentlessly, changing their genes, size, form, and eating habits in addition to selectively breeding until they eventually produced entirely new progeny with completely distinct appearances. "Struggle for existence and survival of the fittest" describes how life first appeared on water, gradually evolving into amphibians, then terrestrial animals. It took thousands of years for humans to evolve from primates to prehistoric man and then to the modern species. Cyclic Time and Yugas: The literature of the Vedas makes no mention of cyclical time. The idea that the world is eternal was introduced in early post-Vedic literature. In Hinduism, the smallest unit of cosmic time is called a Yuga, or "Age." Mahayuga, or the Great Age, is composed of four Yugas: The Golden Age (Krita or Satya Yuga), the Silver Age (Treta Yuga), the Bronze Age (Dvapara Yuga), and the Iron Age (Kali Yuga). These Yugas depict the advance of evil over virtue throughout human history, as well as the progressive deterioration of social, ethical, spiritual, and political arenas. Families of the gods and others, the Manus, the period, called Manavantaras, those termed Kalpas, and their sub-divisions, and the four ages: the events that happen at the close of a Kalpa, and the terminations of the several Ages. Time Division in Hindu Religion: One Sexagenary Cycle (Calendar) = 60 Years Kali Yuga = 4,32,000 Years Dvapara Yuga = 8,64,000 Years Treta Yuga = 12,96,000 Years Krita Yuga = 7,28,000 Years One Maha Yuga = 43,20,000 Years 71 Maha Yugas = 1 Manavantara 14 Manavantaras = 1 Kalpam 2 Kalpas = 1 Day for Lord Brahma 2,000 Kalpas = Age of Brahma 200 Kalpas for Lord Vishnu = One Day for Lord Shiva 200 Kalpas for Lord Shiva = The blink of eye time for Aadhipara Shakti Source: Drikpanchang.com DHASHA AVATAR OR TEN INCARNATIONS OF LORD VISHNU AND TIME PERIODS: 1. Matsya Avatar (Fish Incarnation): The incarnation of Lord Vishnu as Matsya (Giant Fish) descends to save world from a cosmic flood, symbolizes the inception of life in water, paralleling the Silurian Period over 400 million years ago when life began to thrive in aquatic environments. 2. Kurma Avatar (Tortoise Incarnation): The incarnation of Lord Vishnu as Kurma (Tortoise) descends to support Mount Mandara during churning of the Ocean to obtain nectar of immortality (Amrita) represents the transition of life from water to land, much like the evolution of amphibians during the Mesozoic era. 3. Varaha Avatar (Boar Incarnation): The incarnation of Lord Vishnu as Varaha (Wild Pig) descends to save Bhudevi (Earth) signifies the emergence of terrestrial animals, akin to the evolution of land animals in the Cenozoic era. Earth in this incarnation was shown as scientists discovered. Thus, Hindu Religion conceived earth shape millions of years ago. 4. Narasimha Avatar (Half-Man Half-Lion Incarnation): The incarnation of Lord Vishnu as Narasimha denotes the evolution of primates, bridging characteristics of both humans and animals. 5. Vamana Avatar (Dwarf Incarnation): The incarnation of Lord Vishnu as Vamana represents the evolution of Homo erectus - an immature man and the ancestor of the human race compared to modern humans. 6. Parashurama Avatar (Warrior Incarnation): The incarnation of Lord Vishnu as Parashurama symbolizes early humans like Homo habilis (Skilful Human Species), who utilized tools and exhibited early forms of societal structures. 7. Rama Avatar (Ideal Man Incarnation): The incarnation of Lord Vishnu as Rama epitomizes Homo sapiens (Wise Man), with advanced intellectual and social capabilities. 8. Krishna Avatar (God Incarnate): The incarnation of Lord Vishnu as Krishna illustrates the development of spirituality and religious structures within human society. 9. Buddha Avatar (Enlightened Incarnation): The incarnation of Lord Vishnu as Buddha signifies the evolution of human consciousness and the quest for enlightenment and deeper understanding. 10. Kalki Avatar (Destroyer Incarnation): The incarnation of Lord Vishnu as Kalki, yet to appear, represents humanity’s future potential, aligning with genetic advancements and the quest for an ideal human form. Comparative Analysis of Darwin’s Theory with Dashavatar: According to British geneticist and evolutionary biologist J B S Haldane, Dashavatar—a fish, a tortoise, a boar, a man-lion, a dwarf, and eventually four men - advance stage of man (Kalki is not yet born)—represents a "rough idea" of vertebrate evolution, He said that the ten primary avatars of Lord Vishnu, known as the Dashavatar, represent a true sequential picture of the enormous unfolding of evolution. There is an uncanny similarity between these Vishnu avatars and the biological theory of life's evolution on Earth. Hinduism provided the original explanation for the "Theory of Origin of Life and Evolution." The phases of human evolution are depicted in the Dashavatar (Ten Incarnations) of Lord Vishnu, who came to destroy the evil powers of adharma and restore dharma. These stages correspond precisely with Darwin's theory of evolution, starting from aquatic life and ending with vertebrates and modern humans. With merit-based creationism as its common ancestor, the Almighty, Indic philosophy stands in stark contrast to Darwin's Theory of Evolution by omitting to address the causes and mechanisms leading to physical evolution. The original form was that of an aquatic creature called a "Fish." The amphibian "Tortoise" was the second incarnation. "The Boar," a vertebrate mammal, was the third incarnation. "The half-man, half animal (lion)" was the fourth incarnation. The sixth incarnation was "Dwarf Man," an immature man and the ancestor of the human race. "Uncouth Man," who had an axe symbolizing his means of subsistence in the woods, was his sixth rebirth. He was completely out of control of his emotions, especially his rage. "Lord Rama," the seventh incarnation, was a human being who, among the group of incarnations, bordered on divinity. He was a skilled and impartial administrator who was unaffected by emotions. Buddha is pursuit of happiness. He taught us that dukkha, or sadness, is a part of life and that it results from greed and seeking. We escape dukkha if we are able to restrain ourselves towards extreme greed for wealth or material gain, selfishness, and jealousy. He also preached that everyone must die and that death is an eternal state. The tenth and final incarnation of "Kalki" is still to come; he will manifest when human depravity reaches its peak, signifying his origin as the disintegration of this world and subsequent rebirth. Thus, shows there is a tight relationship between religion and science. Comparison of the Time-line of the Ten Incarnations with respect to the Vedic Time-line and the Geological Time-line: Dashavatar with respect to the Vedic Timeline and the Geological Timeline Chronological Order of the Avatar Name of Incarnation Vedic Timeline Geological Timeline 1. Matsya (Fish) - Aquatic Organism Beginning Vaivasvata Manvantara Of Pre Cambrian- Silurian- 500- 550 MYA 2. Kurma (Tortoise) Amphibian – Vaivasvata Manvantara Tretayuga – 2nd Devonian- 358.9 – 419.2 MYA 3. Varaha (Boar) – animal, A vertebrate Land Vaivasvata Manvantara Tretayuga – 3rd. Triassic 250 MYA – 200- 4. Narasimha (Half Man and Half Lion) Vaivasvata Manvantara Tretayuga - 7th Cretaceous – 66- 56 MYA 5. Vamana (Dwarf Man) Vaivasvata Manvantara Tretayuga - 10th Quaternary- 0.001-2.6 MYA 6. Parashurama (Tall with Axe) Man Vaivasvata Manvantara Tretayuga - 19th Quaternary- 0.001-2.6 MYA 7. Lord Rama (Perfect Human) Vaivasvata Manvantara Tretayuga - 24th Quaternary- 0.001-2.6 MYA 8. Lord Krishna (Embodiment of Divinity) Vaivasvata Manvantara Dwaparayuga - 28th Quaternary- 0.001-2.6 MYA 9. Buddha No Data found – the scholars believe the historical Buddha lived from 563 to 483 B.C. 10. Kalki (Yet to arrive) Vaivasvata Manvantara – End of 28th Kaliyuga Quaternary- 0.00 MYA (Million Years Ago). Source: Y. V. Subba Rao’s Research Article on “Transformative Phases of Spiritual Progress in Dashavatar (Ten Incarnations)”. Conclusion: Thus, there are interesting similarities and differences between scientific and mythical explanations for the diversity of life on Earth that can be found when compared Lord Vishnu's Dashavatar with the Darwin's Theory of evolution. Darwin's theory offers a biological framework for comprehending how species gradually evolve over time. It is based on actual data and natural selection. In contrast, Lord Vishnu's Dashavatar, which consists of 10 different avatars, provides a mythical viewpoint that emphasizes the cyclical nature of creation, preservation, and destruction. Both highlights the rich fabric of various intellectual and cultural traditions that influence our world view and aid humanity in its quest to understand the process of evolution on earth. References: 1. Comparative analysis of Darwin Theory of Evolution with Lord Vishnu Dashavatar by MS. Jigyasa Singh. Published in International Journal of Creative Research Thoughts. 2. Darwin's theory of evolution resembles Lord Vishnu's Dashavatar Healthvision.inhealthvision.in/darwins-theory-of-evolution-resembles-lord-vishnus-dashavatar/ 3. “Darwin and The Origin of Species” by A.J. Burton published in Theoria: A Journal of Social and Political Theory Volume No. 14. 4. Darwin’s “On The Origin of Species (1859). 5. Drikpanchang.com www.drikpanchang.com/tutorials/basics/hindu-time-keeping.html 6. Transformative Phases of Spiritual Progress in Dashavatar (Ten Incarnations) by Y.V. Subba Rao published on 16 April 2022 in International Journal of Research – Granthaalya. 7. Vishnu Purana by H.H Wilson.

IMPACT OF TRUMP ADMINISTRATION ON GLOBAL ECONOMY: WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO INDIA

US RECIPROCAL TARIFFS ON INDIA

While addressing a joint session of the US Parliament, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will impose a reciprocal tariff on several countries, including India. He stated that Canada, Mexico, India, and South Korea impose high tariffs on American goods, and in response, the US will implement similar tariffs on these countries starting April 2. In international trade, a tariff is a tax or duty imposed on goods coming from other countries. The term “reciprocal” means “we will do the same as you do.” Trump explained that if a country imposes high tariffs on American goods, the US will respond by imposing the same level of tariff on that country. For example, if Country A imposes a 25% tax on cars from Country B, then Country B will also impose a 25% tax on cars from Country A. This ensures both countries apply equal tariffs. Governments collect revenue through tariffs. Another key reason for imposing tariffs is to promote domestic production, as locally produced goods are often cheaper compared to imported products. By making foreign goods more expensive, governments encourage consumers to buy domestically manufactured products, which supports local businesses and industries. The main objective of reciprocal tariffs is to ensure fair trade by preventing any country from gaining an unfair advantage. When both countries agree to impose the same tax rate, it creates a level playing field in international trade. Reciprocal tariffs also help protect domestic industries by making imported goods more expensive, allowing local companies to compete effectively. This, in turn, boosts the sale of locally made products in domestic markets. Although reciprocal tariffs are meant to ensure fairness in trade, they can also have negative effects. Higher tariffs can increase the cost of imported goods, leading to inflation. Additionally, if both countries keep raising tariffs on each other’s products, it can damage trade relations and hurt economic growth. Over time, this can reduce the overall volume of trade between nations, impacting businesses and consumers alike.

INDIA AND CHINA’S ECONOMIES – A CRITICAL ANALYSIS

--*Dr. S. Vijay Kumar Napoleon Bonaparte the famous French military and political leader said “The word impossible is found in the dictionary of fools”. This means, everything is possible with the dedicated hard work and well plan. China proved this. In 1978, China was one of the poorest countries in the world, poorer than almost all African and Latin American countries. Today, it’s an $18 trillion economy, larger than the entire European Union (EU) and ready to surpass the U.S. within a few years. As of 2024, China and India are the 2nd and 5th largest emerging economies in the world respectively. On a PPP basis, China is at 1st, and India is at 3rd place. Among Asian countries, China and India together contribute more than half of Asia's GDP and account for about 35.31 % of total world population and 60% of Asia population. China and India, the world's most populous nations, have much in common: India home to about 1.44 billion people and China home to 1.43 billion in 2024. India is over three times denser than the China, as India's population density is 485 people per square km compared to 149 of China. Each has sustained an annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate over the past decade that is among the world's highest — 9 percent for China and 7 percent for India; and each has been among the world's most successful in weathering the storm of the recent global recession. In 1988, the GDP (Nominal) of both countries was almost equal. In 2024, China's GDP is around 5 times higher than India. On a PPP basis, the GDP of China is 2.51 times more than India. China crossed the $1 trillion mark in 1998, while India crossed nine years later in 2007 on an exchange rate basis. Both countries have been neck-to-neck in GDP per capita terms till 1991. The per capita rank of China and India is 75th and 143th, respectively, in nominal. The per capita rank of China and India is 77th and 131th, respectively, in PPP. China attains a maximum GDP growth rate of 19.30% in 1970 and a minimum of -27.27% in 1961. India reached an all-time high of 9.63% in 1988 and a record low of -5.83% in 2020. India got independence on 15th August, 1947, while China got independence on 1st October, 1949. India joined WTO on 1st January, 1995, while China joined WTO on 11th December, 2001. Despite, how China outpaced India in the development process so rapidly is to critically analyze is the main of my Paper. My Paper is purely based on facts and figures and I don’t have any prejudice and political intention in writing this Paper. *Professor (Associate) & HOD of Economics (Retired), KGC (NAAC “A” Grade College), Ex – Member of Board Studies (Economics), Kakatiya University, Warangal (India). Analysis of India and China’s Economies: • India’s economy and demographics resemble China’s between the late 1990s and early 2000s, indicating there could be two more decades of rapid sustained growth ahead as well as an enormous associated rise in energy use. • Real gross domestic product per capita at purchasing power parity had risen to $7,100 in 2022, a rate China first reached in 2007/08. • Median population age has increased but is still low at 27.9 years, which China reached in 1998. • India’s population growth averaged 1.1% per year over the 10 years from 2012 to 2022, similar to China’s over the ten years from 1988 to 1998. • The share of the population living in urban areas is estimated to have reached 35% in 2022, a level reached in China around 2000. • India’s energy consumption reached 26 gigajoules per person in 2022, a rate China reached in the early 1990s. • India’s total oil consumption climbed to 237 million metric tons in 2022, which China first reached in 2001. • Severe air pollution in Delhi and other major urban areas resembles China’s northern cities in the 1990s and 2000s, when pollution was estimated to cut life expectancy by up to five years. • There are important differences between the two economies, including climate (China’s cities are at much higher latitudes so more energy is needed for heating) and relations between state-owned firms and the private sector. • But, there are also important similarities, including a large rural population ready to migrate to urban areas in pursuit of better paid work and a large potential to industrialise by catching up with more advanced economies. • India is entering the central take-off portion of the S-curve when urbanisation, industrialisation, household incomes and energy consumption increase most rapidly, usually for several decades at a time. • Real incomes are still less than half the level in China and a sixth of the average for the advanced economies in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), so there is enormous catch-up potential. • For structural reasons, India is likely to remain the world’s fastest-growing economy throughout much of the next 10-20 years, provided it can avoid major policy errors or other negative shocks. The combination of fast-growth in an already very large economy ensures it will be one of the largest if not the largest contributors to global growth throughout the 2020s and 2030s. • If India follows the same trajectory as every large country before it, urbanisation, industrialisation and rapidly increasing incomes, especially in the middle class, will drive an enormous increase in demand for energy services. • India’s expanding middle class will demand much more power for air-conditioning, lighting and appliances as well as more liquid fuels and/or electricity for domestic and foreign travel. • India’s primary energy consumption per person is less than a quarter of China’s and one-sixth of the average in the OECD economies, again implying an enormous potential to increase as the gap narrows. • With the United States, China and the European Union, India is one of the four key building blocks for any projection about energy consumption, fossil fuel use, and emissions at global scale through mid-century. • No two countries ever follow exactly the same trajectory of economic development and energy consumption; India will follow its own path and have to deal with its own specific challenges. • But, China’s rapid, sustained and massive growth over the 2000s and 2010s, with its roots in the reform and opening of the 1980s and 1990s, provides an indication of the direction and scale of the changes to come. • While the rest of the world (including India) is assessing whether higher interest rates for longer is the new norm, China has cut rates, and the economy has entered deflation territory. The debt crisis has deepened with the default by the second largest property developer in China, Country Garden. China will no longer be publishing unemployment rates for those in the age group 16-24. • In India GDP growth rate was top 7 percent (per capita 6.2 percent) in 2023, and unemployment rates are at a 12-year low of 4.1 percent. • Geopolitics has turned attention away from China—and towards India. Economics is responsible for this change, not geopolitics. In 2019, Indian PPP per capita incomes were 47.5 percent of China’s. Convergence in per capita income levels for India-China is very possible (and latest) by 2044. This means that per-capita growth rates in India should be higher than China on a sustained basis. This had already started to happen in the previous decade. Between 2010 and 2019, per capita GDP growth in India was higher than China: 5.2 percent versus 4.5 percent. This marked the first decade after the 1960s when India grew faster than China. Annual GDP Growth Rates in India and China: When considering China and India, in recent decades China has been the more attractive economic prospect. The country’s nominal GDP of USD 18 trillion is roughly six times that of India. China has historically had a larger population, and in the previous decade, China’s real GDP growth outpaced India’s by over 1.5 percentage points annually. Analysis: According to IMF data, China’s population is now in decline. By the end of our forecast horizon in 2027, China will have lost 8 million people; In contrast, India will have gained over 75 million and beating China as the world’s most populous country. Moreover, India’s real GDP growth will be over 2 percentage points higher than China’s every year over our forecast horizon. More favourable demographics are one important factor to India, while China’s population will shrink and age, India’s is relatively youthful and growing briskly. Moreover, India’s far lower income per capita means there is more potential for catch-up growth than in middle-income China. China’s increasingly hegemonic state-owned firms will likely dampen the dynamism of the private sector in the coming years. Finally, China’s growing international isolation—as a result of U.S sanctions, frictions with the West and border restrictions—is already leading firms to diversify supply chains away from the country, a trend which is likely to continue ahead. India is set to pick up some manufacturing business that moves away from China; for example, Apple recently began production of the iPhone 14 from India. But, one must be cautious about India’s dilapidated infrastructure, red tapism and poor educational standards mean it is unlikely to usurp China as the world’s factory any time soon. That is to say, at-least partial economic convergence between the two powers is on the cards in the coming years. Secrets of China's Economic Growth: Many people are profoundly pessimistic about the Chinese economy’s growth prospects, owing to the emergence of massive debt, excessive investment, overcapacity, and so-called “ghost cities” since the 2008 global financial crisis. But these problems are not new. They have, in various forms, affected China’s economy since 1978, and were evident in East Asia’s other high-performing economies – Taiwan, South Korea, and even Japan – during their periods of rapid growth. China’s growth over the last 40 years has been nothing but miraculous. In 1978, China was one of the poorest countries in the world, poorer than almost all African and Latin American countries. Today it’s an $18 trillion economy, larger than the entire European Union (EU) and ready to surpass the U.S. within a few years. Since, Deng Xiaoping initiated his program of “reform and opening up,” China has recorded 9.7% average annual growth. In 2024 — depending on the value of yuan — China will officially escape the middle-income trap and stop being a “developing” or a “third-world” country. The threshold for joining the club of high-income country this year is $13,250 of GDP-per-capita; which China will exceed in a year or two. Moreover, in the four Tier 1 cities — Beijing, Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Guangzhou — that have a combined population of 80 million, the GDP-per-capita is $28,000, putting them on par with European countries like Spain. By the way, if we go to big cities in China, certainly one cannot believe it’s a “developing” country. One can amaze to see the skyscrapers, bullet trains, luxury malls, fancy cars like BMWs and Porsches everywhere world-class subway stations and trains, clean and safe cities, classy hotels. Most people have their favourite couple of talking points — cheap labour, communist dictatorship, copying, protectionism etc. There is some truth to all the cliches and stereotypes, but the truth is more holistic. China’s share of global manufacturing has grown steadily; yet the manufacturing wages in China have also risen constantly and are now much higher than other developing countries — for example, almost 4x higher than India. Moreover, in the four Tier 1 cities — Beijing, Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Guangzhou — that have a combined population of 80 million, the GDP-per-capita is $28,000, putting them on par with European countries like Spain. The following are some reasons how China became an economic superpower. Investment, Exports and Saving: Foreign companies invest in domestic manufacturing and then accumulate foreign exchange reserves through exports. In China’s case, the investments flowed from numerous places — Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Europe, USA etc. China’s ability to attract FDI has been remarkably steady over the last three decades. Thus, even though China stopped being a low-wage country and has been facing trade wars, it is still the ranked 2nd country in the world, in terms of attracting FDI. In the last decade, China received staggering $1.4 trillion of FDI. The Chinese are also prolific savers, which also means that Chinese banks have huge capital, which they leverage to invest in infrastructure and other forms of investments to boost growth. Mercantilism and Protectionism: China has been practicing mercantilism for centuries. It’s a smart strategy that the US embraced in the 19th century. It means focusing on “selling” more than buying and exports more than imports. By the way, Germany also practices this strategy — German exports equal 40% of their GDP. China also engages in protectionism, shielding domestic companies from foreign competition. Foreign companies are often told that if they want to sell something in China, they should establish factories in China and manufacture the products locally. However, China made it worthwhile for these companies to agree to these deals. How did these economies manage to grow so fast for so long and overcome the serious problems that they faced along the way? The answer is simple: resilience. Economic development is extremely complex process, full of challenges and risks, successes and failures, external shocks and internal volatility. And adverse effects – such as a rising debt-to-GDP ratio and excess capacity – are inevitable. If a country fails to respond adequately to new challenges as they arise, economic growth and development stall. Many countries in Latin America and South Asia, for example, have become mired in the so-called “middle-income trap,” because they failed to adjust their growth models in a timely manner. But, China managed this very successfully. In this sense, East Asia’s economies mainly China, Japan and South Korea have embraced the process of “creative destruction” described by the Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter, whereby the economic structure is continually revolutionized from within. Moreover, by implementing incremental reforms that facilitate – and even encourage – the replacement of old, inefficient sources of growth with new, more dynamic ones, they have expedited this process. For example, China’s productivity-enhancing agricultural reforms in the 1980s were spurred partly by growth in the non-agricultural sector, a result of policies aimed at stimulating township and village enterprises. Similarly, in the 1990s, China addressed the build-up of bad debt and unfinished construction projects – the result of state-owned enterprises’ chronic loss-making and excessive property investment, respectively – by implementing institutional reforms that stimulated growth in more dynamic sectors, thereby offsetting the SOEs’ (State Owned Enterprises) declining return on capital. Resilience has thus characterized the interaction between the government and markets since the introduction of Deng’s reforms. Indeed, according to the late economist Gustav Ranis, the interactive dynamic of policy and market institutions was the key to the success of the East Asian economies. For example, fiscal decentralization in China, spurred by local institutions’ demands for increased autonomy, has helped to fuel regional competition and sustain an increasingly market-oriented economic environment. This interactive dynamic is also reflected in the formation of industrial policies. In China, though clusters of vibrant smaller manufacturers are flourishing, policymakers have done relatively little to promote industrial development and upgrading. This leaves it up to market institutions to guide the process, ensuring that they play a key role in the expanding industrial sectors. Another source of resilience in East Asia are local governments. For starters, they are responsible for public capital expenditure, driving the improvement in China’s physical infrastructure and yielding reasonable returns for private investors. This advances the objective of helping local businesses, particularly innovative small and medium-size firms, to grow and thrive. To this end, local governments are also helping entrepreneurs gain access to global production chains. The Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces have been particularly successful in this effort – and, unsurprisingly, rank among China’s most robust regional economies. In China, local governments have demonstrated a willingness to support institutional innovation. This allowed for the flexibility needed to address structural challenges at the local level, thereby preventing them from blocking growth. Political System: Being a non – democratic country and ruled by Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Hence, there will be no frequent changes in the government policies as in a democratic country. This is a big advantage for foreign investors in the era of globalisation, which in turn helped for the rapid development of China. Advantages to India Over China: Defaults by Chinese borrowers have hit a record high post-pandemic, with 8.54 million individuals blacklisted from economic activities. This surge, up from 5.7 million in 2020, represents about 1% of China's working-age adults. Concurrently, China faces deflationary pressures, with consumer prices falling rapidly. The ongoing real estate crisis has dampened the consumer spirit, huge debt is weighing down the economy, foreign investors are losing confidence and unemployment and deflation are dogging the world's second-largest economy. Add to that President Xi Jinping's crackdown on private business. The World Bank predicts China's economic slowdown in 2024, marking a departure from its previous status as a global growth driver. Meanwhile, India, perceived as China's replacement, must focus on consistent growth through manufacturing and exports. The ongoing real estate crisis has dampened the consumer spirit, huge debt is weighing down the economy, foreign investors are losing confidence and unemployment and deflation are dogging the world's second-largest economy. Add to that President Xi Jinping's crackdown on private business. China's economic problems are short-term as well as structural. While China can come to grips with its short-term problems, the structural problems pose a big challenge. China's aging population which directly results in constricted labour supply as well as more welfare expenditure sticks out like a sore thumb. Its alienation from the US and the Western world at large threatens its huge export sector as the Western countries have started diversifying their supply chains. Though, India is still far away from achieving the economic miracle of China, the world now sees it as the replacement of China which has been driving the global growth for a long time while also being the factory of the world. Rating Agency S&P Global ratings forecast that India would become third largest economy by 2030. Though, China aims to transition to a high-technology economy instead of a mass producer of goods. Growth in the new-age tech industry requires innovation and a free private enterprise while Xi prefers a tighter control. A number of top business executives have 'vanished' recently. China's decline comes at a time when the world is confident on India. India has the chance to replace China but that would require consistent growth driven by manufacturing and exports. India's biggest advantage over China is its predominantly young population but low skills mar this potential. Skilling its youth, especially in new-age tech, will give India a major growth driver for decades. "A paramount test will be whether India can become the next big global manufacturing hub, an immense opportunity. Developing a strong logistics framework will be key in transforming India from a services-dominated economy into a manufacturing-dominant one". Realizing the full potential of India's labour market will primarily hinge on the upskilling of workers and a rise in the engagement of women in the workforce. "Success in these two areas will enable India to realise its dimorphic dividend”. Overall FDI into India may have declined but there are reasons to be optimistic with the country seeing interest in greenfield investments (A green-field investment is a type of foreign direct investment (FDI) in which a parent company creates a subsidiary in a different country, building its operations from the ground up) amid the first-ever decline posted by China. India expects these to translate into higher investment flows by 2024. China is ‘risky’ for supply chains and India a favoured destination for U.S. firms, for example, Walmart, the world's biggest retailer, is importing more goods to the US from India and reducing its reliance on China as it looks to cut costs and diversify its supply chain. India is emerging to take China’s place or not, but India must strive hard itself to effect the big power shift in Asia. English Language Benefit: The 200 hundred years of British rule and the Indian obsession with the English language has proved to be a boon in disguise for the industry. English is the widest spoken language in India and all business transactions take place in English. In the Asian scenario, India is the most English-friendly language in the region. Whereas, China and other Asian countries like Thailand, Japan, and Korea stress their national language for all communication, making English a secondary language; India has a huge advantage in having a vast talent pool of fluent English-speaking young people. Education and Skill Set: With over 2500 Universities as compared to only 500 in China, India is far ahead in education and skilled manpower; giving its competitors a real tough challenge. Quality Edge: The Indian workforce is highly reliable and can deliver world-class quality while ensuring rapid delivery due to the international quality and security standards that are adhered to in the call center outsourcing services business. Governmental Support: The IT boom and the staggering revenue generation from this sector has made the Indian government very supportive of the needs of the industry. The government gives a special thrust on the development of this sector thus helping the businesses put their best foot forward in service providing. The government has given high-speed international private internet circuits to the big companies thus ensuring better delivery standards. It has granted Income tax and customs exemptions for the export of IT-enabled services and software. The government has enhanced its investment in IT infrastructure. It has given consent for private internet gateways The government has approved several key foreign investment proposals in the IT and IT-enabled services to allow for tremendous growth in this sector. Contrasting Demographic Paths: Two differences between China's and India's demographic paths bear most directly on each country's future prospects: trends in population growth and changes in population age distribution: (1). India's Population Is Growing More Rapidly Than China's: After 2025, India's total population is projected to surpass China, but it crossed China in this year only (India home to about 1.44 billion people and China home to 1.43 billion in 2024), thus became world's most populous nation. India’s population is expected continue to increase at least till 2050, whereas China's is expected to decline there after 2025 (Figure 1). Total Population Sizes, China and India, 2000–2035 (Figure: 1): Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2010. Total Fertility Rates, China and India, 2000–2035 (Figure: 2): Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2010. These contrasting growth rates are driven primarily by differences in fertility. China's fertility rate has been lower than India's for many years, in part because of China's One-Child Policy. In 2010, the total fertility rate (Average number of children that would be born to a woman, if she would experience the current fertility rate throughout her reproductive period) in India was estimated at 2.65 children per woman, compared with 1.54 in China. This difference means that, on average, each Indian woman is currently having, over the course of her lifetime, more than one more child than each Chinese woman is. Total fertility rates in India are expected to decrease very gradually to "replacement level" — the level needed for population stabilization in the long run (approximately 2.1 children per woman) — by 2035 (Figure 2). By contrast, the total fertility rate in China has been below replacement level since 1991. (2). China's Population is older than India's and is Beginning to Age Rapidly: The two countries' population-age distributions also differ substantially and are undergoing significant change. Because of China's declining fertility, the average age of its population is higher than India's. As shown in Figure 3, in 2010 China's largest age cohorts consisted of people aged 20–24, 35–39, and 40–44. By contrast, India's age structure more closely resembles the classic "pyramid" shape, in which the youngest cohort is the largest and each succeeding age cohort is slightly smaller than the next younger one. By 2035, China's population will skew heavily toward older age groups, whereas India's population will have its largest cohorts in the age groups below 50. Age-Sex Structure of the Populations of India and China, 2010 and 2035 (Figure:3): Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2010. Reflecting this changing age composition, the two countries will experience different patterns in the percentage of population that is of working age (customarily ages 15–64). In China, this percentage peaked in 2010, at 73 percent, and is beginning to decline; by 2035, it is expected to fall to 60 percent. By contrast, India's working-age population as a share of the total population is gradually increasing. From its 2010 level of 65 percent, the percentage of people of working age is expected to increase gradually; to crest at about 68 percent around 2030 — the same year that India will surpass China on this statistic; and then to decline slowly. Demographic Dividend for India: India has demography on its side, whereas China faces serious demographic demons, while a massive working-age population gives India the chance to become the world’s next growth titan, the country will have to work hard to translate its demographic windfall into much higher standards of living for average Indians. Economic productivity is the key. When a growing share of a country's population reaches working age, conditions may be ripe for that country to reap a "demographic dividend" — that is, to realize income growth and savings because a higher proportion of its population is able to contribute to the economy. From this standpoint, for the next several decades, China's demographics will not be more favourable for supporting economic growth than they are now. A high ratio of working-age people to dependents contributed significantly to China's economic growth in the past two decades, but China's proportion of working-age people is at its peak and will soon begin to decline. Moreover, China is now entering an era when its rapidly aging population — leading to rising ratios of dependents to workers and rising health costs for the growing cohort of elderly — could constrain economic growth. Savings rates may fall as a larger fraction of the population begins to use savings for retirement, thus reducing the flow of private capital into investments, while the government also diverts more of the budget from public investment to pension and health payments. In addition, the elderly in China (as well as in India) traditionally rely on family members to care for them in old age. If adult children divert more of their time and money toward taking care of their elderly parents rather joining the modern labour force, the forecasted rates of economic growth may not materialize. In India, by contrast, the demographic window of opportunity is still wide open. India will have an important demographic advantage — an increasing percentage of working-age people — that will produce favourable conditions for a demographic dividend until around 2030, when the ratio of working-age people to dependents is expected to peak. Suggestions: Whether China is able to sustain economic growth in the face of its demographic changes and whether India is able to reap its demographic dividend in the coming decades will depend on the socio-economic and policy environments in each country. The clearest prerequisite for translating demographic opportunity into sustained economic growth or sustaining growth is in enabling the labour to be productive. • Education. People need the skills and training to make them productive workers. China's population has higher average levels of literacy and education than India's. If India invests in human capital, it may be able to overcome its current educational disadvantage through productive employment of its growing pool of younger workers. Hence, Government of India should spend at least 4% of GDP (Presently spending 2.9% of GDP only). • Population health and the health care system: People also need good health and access to quality health care to work productively. China's population is generally healthier than India's, and China has the benefit of a more developed health care system. On the other hand, China's population is aging more rapidly than India's, and therefore health care costs for this population are likely to pose a growing burden. Currently, China is spending 5% of its GDP on health care, while India is spending 2.5 of its GDP on health care system. Hence, India must increase its expenditure on health care system to 5% of its GDP on par with China. • Middle and Small Enterprises: Start-ups are responsible for public capital expenditure, driving the improvement in China’s physical infrastructure and yielding reasonable returns for private investors. Hence, the Government of India must expedite the process of Start-ups in the entire country for rapid industrial development which in turn can promote massive employment generation. • Women in the workforce. Although a larger proportion of India’s population is of working age, those between the ages of 15 and 64 only make up 51% of the country’s labour force, compared to 76% in China. Inclusion of the untapped women in the labour market can dramatically expand the labour force in India and create a rapid expansion of the GDP growth rate. Hence, Government of India should create several opportunities for the untapped women labour force. • Infrastructure. A well-developed infrastructure can reduce transaction costs, enable economic efficiency, increase the productivity of labour, and ease the limitations of societal aging by extending productivity into later years. Building such infrastructure can also provide employment opportunities. As a result of recent, systematic investments, China ranks considerably ahead of India on many dimensions of infrastructure, especially those related to communications and energy. Hence, Indian Government must focus on creating well developed infrastructure for the development of the country and to attract foreign investments. • Openness to Foreign Trade and a Sound Financial System: Other factors that contribute to economic growth include openness to trade, which adds productive and rewarding jobs, and a sound financial system to promote savings and investment. China ranks ahead of India on these dimensions also. Hence, Government of India should take care regarding openness in foreign trade and a sound financial system. • Increase Investment Activity: Encouraging both domestic and foreign investments by creating a favourable business environment, simplifying regulatory procedures, and providing incentives for industries must be expedited. • Boost Exports: Promoting exports by identifying sectors where India has a comparative advantage, improving infrastructure and logistics, and providing support to exporters. • Enhance Female Labour Force Participation: Taking steps to increase the participation of women in the workforce through gender equality measures, access to education and skill development etc. • Generate Employment Opportunities in Formal Manufacturing: Focusing on creating more job opportunities in the formal manufacturing sector for low- and semi-skilled workers. This can be achieved through policies that promote the growth and productivity of the manufacturing sector, adoption of advanced technologies, and skill development programs. • Maintain a Conducive Investment Climate: Continuously improving ease of doing business, reducing bureaucratic hurdles, enhancing transparency, and strengthening governance to attract investments and boost economic growth. • Emphasise Education and Skill Development: Investing in education and skill development programs to equip the workforce with the necessary skills for the evolving job market, fostering innovation and entrepreneurship. • Strengthen Infrastructure: Prioritising infrastructure development, including transportation, logistics, power, and digital connectivity, to support economic activities and facilitate trade and commerce. • Foster Regional and International Collaborations: Actively engaging in regional and international collaborations to expand market access, participate in global value chains, and leverage opportunities for growth and development. India has to improve its infrastructure and economic growth substantially to compete with China. But it seems that the private sector won’t act until it is more confident about politics. • Indian democracy is beyond vibrant, whereas China remains a one party state: For example, when the Chinese government wants to build a high-speed rail line, they just acquire the land and move and compensate the adversely affected people. But, in India, a regular ironic complaint is “too much democracy.” In India every development activity is politicised. Hence, Government must act firmly and deal strictly regarding all development activities in the interest of our nation. • Economic Decoupling from China: It is infeasible in the near to medium term because the Chinese economy is deeply intertwined with the Indian economy. Hence, India can play an important role in enhancing economic growth by creating employment, strengthening the manufacturing sector, improving infrastructure, and increasing exports under Indian government’s Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan (“self-reliant India campaign”) with the mutual cooperation with China. • Mutual Cooperation: Economic decoupling will not restore the status quo ante on the disputed border. In the era of globalisation, trade and mutual cooperation with every nation is vital. Hence, India should focus on enhancing exports and improving market access in China to reduce its trade deficit. • Transparent and Rational Protocols: India to develop transparent and rational protocols to increase Chinese investments in a sensible and secure manner. • Protectionism: The Indian government should realize that protectionism is not a solution for the country’s economic and political problems and instead undertake further economic reforms to boost national economic growth. Conclusion: From an economic perspective, China's demographic characteristics are currently optimal for supporting economic growth, but in coming decades China will have to cope with a rapidly aging population and a shrinking working-age population. By contrast, India has two more decades before for its demographic window begins to close. Whether India will be able to reap a demographic dividend will depend on its ability to meet the challenges of improving its educational system and closing gender gaps in education, improving its health care system, enhancing its infrastructure, and incorporating more women into the workforce. India has one of lowest female workforce participation rates in the world, and one of the least educated populations in Asia. Increasing educational attainment and women's involvement in the workforce would give India's economy an additional impetus for growth by expanding the labour force at a rate that exceeds the rate of population growth, while also improving its quality. India presents an immensely attractive opportunity for global businesses. With its vast market, abundant labour force, and stable government, it serves as an ideal destination for manufacturing and investment. However, to fully harness its potential, India must take proactive measures to enhance its competitiveness on the global stage. By implementing strategic reforms and creating a favourable business environment and infrastructure, India can solidify its position as a highly enticing hub for businesses worldwide. References: 1. World Bank: Nominal, PPP, Nominal Per Capita, PPP per capita & IMF. 2. World Economy Rankings List 2024. 3. UN - World Population Prospects, 24 January,2024. 4. World Development Indicators, World Bank, 2023. 5. World Population Prospects, United Nations Population Division, 2022. 6. World Urbanisation Prospects, United Nations Population Division, 2018. 7. Statistical Review of World Energy, Energy Institute, 2023. 8. Focus Economics Consensus Forecast – November,2022. 9. Why is China Growing So Fast? Mohsin S and Zuliu Hu, IMF June,1997. 10. How India can take benefit of China’s Economic Crisis – The Economic Times, 18/12/2023. 11. U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2010. 12. India’s Demographic Dividend: The Key to Unlocking Its Ambitions – Sophie Maltin, Senior Economist at S&P Global Marketing Intelligence and Ashima Tyagi, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Marketing Intelligence.

CONGRESS PARTY SIX GAURANTEES IN TELANGANA–ANALYSIS

Broadly speaking, welfare means efforts to provide a basic level of well- being through subsidized social services such as healthcare, education, infrastructure, transportation, vocational training, and public housing. While, Amartya Sen has stressed on State-led social welfare schemes to tackle India’s developmental issues, others like Bhagwati argues that focusing on economic growth is important so that enough resources are available for social welfare programs. In his view, inequality may rise with economic growth initially, but sustained growth will eventually also sustain the social benefit programs to redistribute and mitigate the effects of the initial inequality. In any country, welfare programmes should be parallel to the economic development of a country. That is to say, balance must be maintained between the development and welfare. Welfare programs that are beyond a country's development level are not good for the economic development of a country, as it happened in Greece. On the other hand, if the economy develops rapidly without corresponding improvement in people's living standards and public welfare, people will not feel a "sense of gain", which in turn will have a negative impact on economic development. It is a very pathetic condition that in our country all the political parties promise several things before elections to come in to power, and never explain the public, how they will fulfil the said promises. Here, I will try to explain the need to maintain the balance between welfare and development with examples: First, welfare is not a free lunch. Welfare at any level needs economic support. High welfare under high debt will create many social problems as happened in Greece, which will ruin economies. On the other hand, Sweden depend on high taxation and high deficit. But high welfare supported by high taxation reduces development funds for enterprises, impeding the development of enterprises. And if enterprises lose energy, the entire economy will suffer. High taxation also affects individuals' desire and capacity for consumption and thus undermines people's enthusiasm to expand production. Second, excessive welfare will breed dependence and result in waste of social resources. Although, high welfare comes from individual tax payers’ contribution, it seems like a public welfare provided by the State. It will result in many social problems, such as waste of social resources, voluntarily unemployment and retirement in advance. Once people get used to this kind of dependence, economic development will be undermined. Third, excessive welfare beyond a country's development level will impede accumulation and harm welfare programs in the future. In economics, production is the top priority and it decides consumption. A society has to improve its production level if it wants to improve its consumption level. Production here refers to extended production, because only expanding the scale will breed competition and provide unfailing supply. The expansion of scale should be high-quality and high-level expansion of production through innovation and improvement of the industrial structure. Fourth, the distribution of public welfare should be fair and transparent. Today, the public welfare in different social groups is unbalanced, especially when it comes to urban and rural areas. Therefore, the authorities should make efforts to rectify the imbalance and should take measures to prevent unfairness and corruption from creeping into redistribution of welfare. India is a developing country, and development is a key in solving social, economic problems, and only further development can guarantee sustainable and high-level welfare. Any Welfare Scheme must support the livelihood and elevate his/her economic status but should not make him/her as slave. In fact, the present Governments are making their citizens as slaves and using them as their vote bank at the cost of State (Public) Exchequer. Thus, wasting tax payers’ money. In this context, I would like to remind our Central and State Governments to learn and must follow from this Chinese proverb – “Don’t give fishes freely to the public but should train them how to fish”. That is to say, not to give anything freely but make them self-reliant and earn their livelihood themselves without depending on the Government. Actually, any Government’s basic duty is to provide all with the basic needs like providing employment opportunities, free education up to Intermediate (12th Class) to all, especially economically weaker sections, infrastructure facilities like medical, health, safe drinking water, good roads and homes etc. Forgetting this, today Governments are providing freely some unnecessary welfare schemes like free food @ Rs. 5 per person (Annapurna Canteens in Telangana State), Free transportation, Rythu bandhu for rich farmers (eliminating tenant farmers) etc. for the sake of votes. Due to this, previous BRS Telangana Government was not in a position to pay salaries and pensions on 1st every month. Telangana Government is scrambling for funds to implement Welfare Schemes. In such a worst financial situation of Telangana State, Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge unveiled the party's manifesto, named 'Abhaya Hastham,' for the Telangana elections. The manifesto includes six guarantees. Six Guarantees of Congress Party: 1. Mahalaxmi Scheme • INR 2500 Financial assistance to women • INR 500 for gas cylinder • Free travel in RTC buses 2. Telangana Rythu Bharosa • INR 15000 for farmers INR 1200 for agriculture labours • INR 500 bonus for paddy crops 3. Telangana Gruha Jyothi Scheme • 200 units of free electricity 4. Indiramma Indlu Housing Scheme • INR 5 lacs for all those who do not have a house in Telangana state • 250 sq. yards for all Telangana movement fighters 5. Telangana Yuva Vikasam Scheme • Vidya Bharosa card worth INR 5 lakh for Telangana students • Establishment of an International School in Telangana at every Mandal 6. Cheyutha Scheme Telangana • Health Insurance up to INR 10 lakh for elderly citizens • Pension of INR 4000 to elderly poor citizen Congress Party promised to implement the above said guarantees within 100 days of resuming in to power. Nobody will oppose and nothing wrong to declare several welfare programmes to the public in their election manifestos by the political parties. But, I don’t understand why the political parties have forgotten their responsibility to explain the public that how they will fulfil their election promises. In the recent Telangana State elections, Election Parties competitively declared many promises to win the elections. I don’t understand why the Telangana Congress manifesto did not explain the modalities of implementation of six guarantees. Telangana's outstanding public debt is estimated to be Rs 3,57,059 crore, according to the Budget estimates 2023-24 which is 23.8 per cent of GSDP. According to the Government’s latest declaration in the Telangana State Assembly, presently the State is reeling under a total of debt of Rs 6 lakh 71 thousand crore. The Centre has steadfastly refused to increase the borrowing limits under FRBM (Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, 2003). In such a worst economic situation, it is definitely a big challenge for Telangana Congress Government to fulfil six guarantees. Analysis of Six Guarantees: First, Mahalakshmi Scheme: Under this scheme, women of Telangana will receive: Rs. 2,500 every month, Gas cylinders for Rs. 500, Free travel in TRTC buses. According to one estimate Telangana Government is require to spend about Rs. 24,000 crores to provide Rs. 2,500 for women per month, about Rs. 3,199 crore @ Rs. 500 per Gas Cylinder and about Rs. 2500 crore for women free TSRTC travel annually. Second, Rythu Bharosa: Under this scheme, farmers will be provided: Rs. 15,000 per acre for farmers, and tenants, Rs. 12,000 per year for agriculture labour and a bonus of Rs. 500 per year for paddy crop, Free electricity to farmers. Under the BRS government's Rythu Bandhu, farmers were paid Rs 10,000 annually. The previous BRS government has paid Rs 72,000 crore under a similar scheme as Rythu Bandhu during the past five and half years, with 70 lakh farmers benefitting. Now, the Congress increased from Rs. 10,000 to Rs. 15000 per acre for farmers and also promised to pay Rs. 12,000 per year for agriculture labour and bonus of Rs. 500 per year for paddy crop. These additional promises under the Rythu Bharosa will be a lot of additional financial burden on the State exchequer. Already Telangana State Electricity Discoms are reeling under more than Rs. 85,000 crore debt. In such a situation, the continuation 24-hour power supply will be a herculean task. Third, Gruha Jyothi: Under the scheme, Congress promised to provide 200 units of free electricity to every household. This is estimated to cost about Rs. about 2,500 crores on the State exchequer. Fourth, Indiramma Indlu: Under this scheme, the Congress promised 250 sq. yards plot for all Telangana movement fighters. House site and Rs. 5 lakhs for people not having their own house. This estimated to burden the State exchequer of about Rs. 9,202 crores. Fifth, Yuva Vikasam: This scheme is for the youth of the state. It includes: Vidya Bharosa card worth Rs. 5 lakhs for students. Setting up Telangana International Schools in every Mandal. The students who got selected under the Yuva Vikasam Scheme will get a Vidya Bharosa Card. Through this card, students will get Rs. 5,00,000 as financial assistances for their education. This scholarship amount will be given to the students of Telangana International Schools. Sixth, Cheyutha Scheme Telangana: Under this Scheme Health Insurance up to INR 10 lakh for elderly citizens and Pension of INR 4000 to elderly poor citizen will be provided. This is estimated to cost about Rs. 40,000 crores a year. In addition to the above said Schemes, the Congress Party also promised to waive up to Rs. 2 lakh farm loan. The BRS government had budgeted Rs 21,000 lakh crore to waive up to Rs one lakh. As per the calculation, the Congress government needs to allot at least 35,000 lakh crore for the next five years to implement the farm loan waiver. According to the state government statistics, as many as 42 lakh farmers were identified as beneficiaries during the previous regime for the crop loan waiver. To implement above said 6 Guarantees and to waive up to Rs. 2 lakh farm loan, according to a rough estimate there will be an additional burden of more than 70 lakh crore per year on the State exchequer. Minimum Support Declared by Congress in Their Manifesto: Sl. No. Crop Present MSP)/Quintal INC Promised MSP/Quintal 1. Paddy 2,183 2,683 2. Maize 1,870 2,200 3. Red Gram 6,300 6,700 4. Soya Bean 3,950 4,400 5. Cotton 6,025 6,500 6. Chilli ----------- 15,000 7. Turmeric ----------- 12,000 8. Sorghum ----------- 3,500 9. Sugar Cane ----------- 4,000 10. Jowar 2,758 3,050 Source: Indian National Congress (INC) Telangana Pradesh Congress Committee-Assembly Elections – 2023: Abhya Hastham (Manifesto). As a part of implementation of Two Guarantees out of Six Guarantees recently elected Telangana Congress Government released a subsidy of Rs. 374 crores for the free travel to women scheme in the TSRTC buses along with Rs. 298 crores for Rajiv Aarogya Sri Scheme and Rs. 996 crores for power subsidy. Though, my analysis is confined to Six Guarantees, I have provided Congress manifesto highlights other than Six Guarantees below for favour of information. Manifesto Highlights Other than Six Guarantees: 1. Congress party is committed to restore democratic governance as per the spirit and wishes of the Telangana people. 2. We will hold a "Praja Darbar" (public court) every day at the Chief Minister's camp office. 3. We will provide a monthly honorary pension of Rs. 25,000 to the parents or spouse of the martyrs of the first and second phases of the Telangana movement, and provide a government job to one member of their family. 4. We will withdraw the cases against the Telangana movement activists and allocate them a 250 yards house site. 5. We will waive off the crop loans of farmers up to Rs. 2 lakhs. 6. Farmers will be given interest-free crop loans of up to Rs. 3 lakhs. 7. Farmers will be provided with uninterrupted free power for 24 hours. 8. A comprehensive crop insurance scheme will be provided for all major crops. 9. A judicial inquiry will be conducted by a sitting High Court judge into all irregularities and corruption in the construction of the Kaleshwaram Lift Irrigation Project. 10. In accordance with 73rd and 74th constitutional amendments, the three tier system of local bodies will be rejuvenated with their past glory by assigning the responsibilities, funds and management of local development works. 11. All vacant teacher posts will be filled through Mega DSC within 6 months. 13. A rural youth financial corporation will be set up with initial capital of Rs. 1000 crores to provide self-employment opportunities by encouraging start-ups and small and medium scale industries. 14. Annual job calendars will be released and 2 lakhs vacant posts will be filled transparently within a specified time period. 15. Free internet through Wi-Fi facilities will be provided to all students. 16. Increase the allocation of the budget for the education sector from the present 6% to 15%. 17. The monthly salary of mid-day meal workers working in all government schools will be increased to Rs. 10,000. 17. (a)The monthly salary of Anganwadi teachers will be increased to Rs. 18,000, and they will be brought under EPF coverage to ensure job security. 18. Around 6,000 closed schools will be reopened with better facilities. 19. Four more IIITs will be set up similar to Basara IIIT. 20. Knee surgery will be included under the Arogyasri scheme. 21. "Bhumata" portal will be introduced in place of the Dharani portal and justice will be done to all farmers who have lost their land rights. 22. We will establish the "Land Commission" to resolve all land rights issues. 23. We will provide full land rights to the beneficiaries on 25 lakh acres that were distributed to the poor through land reforms. 24. We will provide a monthly honorarium of Rs. 1,500 to village panchayat ward members. 25. An honorary pension will be paid to ex sarpanches, ex-MPTCs and ex-ZPTC members. 26. Village volunteers’ system will be introduced to help target groups to access various government programmes for the rural people. 27. We will immediately pay the three DAs arrears that are pending to all government employees and pensioners. 28. We will abolish the current Contributory Pension Scheme (NPS) and re-introduce the Old Pension Scheme (OPS). 29. We will announce a new PRC for government employees and TSRTC staff, and implement its recommendations within 6 months. 30. We will ensure payment of salaries of government employees on the 1st of every month. 31. We will increase the monthly salary of anganwadi teachers to Rs. 18,000 and also they will be brought under EPF coverage to ensure their job security. 32. Along with completion of the merger of TSRTC into the government, we will immediately pay the two PRC arrears to RTC workers. 33. Provide financial assistance of Rs. 12,000 per year to every auto rickshaw driver. 34. Pending traffic challans will be cleared with a 50% discount through a onetime settlement scheme. 35. Completely abolish belt shops. 36. Establish three new corporations for the Madigas, Malas, and other SC sub-castes after the SC categorization. 38. Provide increased reservations based on population for BCs after conducting a "caste census" for BCs. 39. Provide 5% reservation for nomadic tribes/denotified tribes in education and employment opportunities. 40. Establish a "BC Bhavan" in the name of Professor Jayashankar in every district headquarters. 41. Name Jangaon district after Sardar Sarvai Papanna Goud district. 42. Establish corporations for all castes of backward classes and allocate adequate funds. 43. Implement a sub-plan for Backward Classes (BCs). 44. Establish a special welfare board for EBCs. 45. Institute a minority sub-plan with adequate funds. 46. Provide Rs. 1,00,000 and 10 grams of gold as Indiramma gift to the Hindu and Rs. 1,60,000 for the minority girls at the time of their marriage. 47. Review and simplify the policy of compassionate appointments in the Singareni collieries. 48. The Congress Party will not allow the privatization of the Singareni company under any circumstances. 49. Bring the beedi workers under the purview of life insurance and ESI. 50. Increase the ex-gratia for Toddy Tappers who have deceased accidentally to Rs. 10 lakhs. 51. Provide Rs. 2 lakhs through DBT, directly to Yadavas and Kurmars for sheep rearing without middlemen. 52. Provide social security to unorganized workers, such as construction workers, auto rickshaw drivers, cab drivers, working for companies such as Swiggy, Zomato, Ola & Uber in line with the Rajasthan model. 53. Revive the "Bangaru Thalli" scheme to provide financial assistance for every girl child born. 54. Provide free electric scooters to every girl studying higher education and are above the age of 18. 55. Establish "Old Age Homes" in all district headquarters. 56. The issue of long pending house site allotment for Journalists in Hyderabad city will be resolved immediately. 57. Provide Rs. 5 lakhs in cash to the families of deceased journalists. 38. We will provide a monthly honorarium of Rs. 5,000 to public distribution ration dealers in the state. 39. Supply fine rice on white ration cards. 40. Establish a welfare board for Gulf workers. 41. Increase the monthly pension for the disabled to Rs. 6,000. 42. Issue gender reassignment certificates and identity cards to transgender people. 43. Establish a residential sports school in each district. 44. Immediately resolve all the problems of home guards along with salary revisions. 45. Pay a monthly pension of Rs. 3,000 to folk artists over the age of 50. 46. Osmania hospital structure will be preserved as a Heritage monument, while ensuring modern health care infrastructure is developed within the hospital campus. 47. Construct new metro routes on the LB Nagar - Aramghar - Mehdipatnam - BHEL routes. 48. Modernize the drains to make Hyderabad a flood-free city. 49. Waive penalties on property tax and house tax arrears in municipalities, corporations, and gram panchayats across the state. 50. Establish Basti public schools with all modern facilities in municipal and municipality centers. 58. We will provide a monthly honorarium of Rs. 5,000 to public distribution ration dealers in the state. 59. Supply fine rice on white ration cards. 60. Establish a welfare board for Gulf workers. 61. Increase the monthly pension for the disabled to Rs. 6,000. 62. Issue gender reassignment certificates and identity cards to transgender people. 63. Establish a residential sports school in each district. 64. Immediately resolve all the problems of home guards along with salary revisions. 65. Pay a monthly pension of Rs. 3,000 to folk artists over the age of 50. 66. Osmania hospital structure will be preserved as a Heritage monument, while ensuring modern health care infrastructure is developed within the hospital campus. 67. Construct new metro routes on the LB Nagar - Aramghar - Mehdipatnam - BHEL routes. 68. Modernize the drains to make Hyderabad a flood-free city. 69. Waive penalties on property tax and house tax arrears in municipalities, corporations, and gram panchayats across the state. 70. Establish Basti public schools with all modern facilities in municipal and municipality centers. Policy Recommendations: Without modifications to the Six Guarantees, it is highly impossible to implement them in Toto. Hence, I am suggesting the following policy recommendations to the Government of Telangana with good will and faith to implement them in letter and spirit in the interest of bright future and welfare of the Telangana people and to save Telangana State from falling in further serious financial crisis and debt trap. 1. Mahalaxmi Scheme: (a) Rs. 2,500 monthly financial assistances to women. Regarding this point, first of all, Government must identify the women who are in the below poverty line (BPL) and give them the above said amount per month. (b) Gas Cylinder at Rs. 500/ - also should be given to the women who are living below poverty line. (c) Free travel to women in TSRTC buses across the Telangana State. To implement this program effectively, Government must provide some “Special Free Buses to Women” and allow them in these buses only and not in all TSRTC Buses, so that to some extent we can avoid financial losses to the TSRTC. Sources in the state government told PTI that according to a rough estimate, the RTC earns Rs 2,500 crore annually through women passengers. If the scheme is to be implemented, the Telangana Government will have to reimburse the same amount to the corporation which is reeling under accumulated losses of Rs 6,000 crore. It would be further better if income per annum criteria per women is followed for the implementation of this Scheme. 2. Rythu Bharosa: (a) Financial assistance of Rs. 15,000 per acre to farmers and Tenant farmers. This financial help should to be provided only to the small farmers (up to 5 acres) and marginal farmers (up to 2.5 acres). In order to avoid duplication only one i.e. either the owner of the land or the tenant farmer should be given only if he/she actually does the agriculture. One possibility involves using the possession of Loan Eligibility Cards (LECs) issued under the Land Licensed Cultivators Act of 2011 that entitled tenants to credit, insurance, and subsidies, as an eligibility criterion for receiving the benefits to the tenant farmers under Rythu Bharosa Scheme. (b) Rs. 12,000 to Agricultural Labourers per year. (Agricultural labourers means those who earns major part of their income from agriculture as their livelihood). Government must identify these people on basis of their information provided in their white ration cards (Annual income and main profession). So that we can provide financial help who really deserves. 3. Gruha Jyothi: (a) 200 units of free electricity to all the households. This is a herculean task, especially when already Telangana State Electricity Discoms are reeling under more than Rs. 85,000 crore debt. Hence, Government should reduce the electricity consumption units’ limit to 100 and also apply BPL Criteria. 4. Indiramma Indlu: Under this scheme, (a) Congress promised 250 sq. yards plot for all Telangana movement fighters. (b) House site and Rs. 5 lakhs for people not having their own house. This is estimated to burden the State exchequer of about Rs. 9,202 crores. Hence, once again BPL criteria should be applied. 5. Yuva Vikasam: This scheme is for the youth of the state. It includes: a) Vidya Bharosa card worth Rs. 5 lakhs for students. (b) Setting up Telangana International Schools in every Mandal The students who got selected under the Yuva Vikasam Scheme will get a Vidya Bharosa Card. Through this card, students will get Rs. 5,00,000 as financial assistances for their education. This scholarship amount will be given to the students of Telangana International Schools. I opine, this financial assistance should be provided to all the students irrespective schools, caste and creed based on merit/talent. 6. Cheyutha Scheme Telangana: Under this Scheme: (a) Health Insurance up to INR 10 lakh for elderly citizens (b) Pension of INR 4000 to elderly poor citizen will be provided. This is estimated to cost about Rs. 40,000 crores a year. Economically weaker sections should be given, so that only deserved people will be benefitted. 7. Identifying The Financial Leakages in The Administration: Former Telugu Desham Government under NTR leadership to avoid unnecessary financial wastage took a dare step to dissolve State Legislative Council and Corporation Chairman posts. The leaders in power must realise that they are the servants of the public and not the bosses, as Chief Minister Sri. Revanth Reddy said in several occasions. 8. Political Leaders Must Be a Role Model to the Public: Today, people are hating the leaders because most of them are corrupted and criminals. So, the political leaders must introspect themselves and try to be a role model to the people. To conclude, As the Chief Minister Mr. Revanth Reddy said on the floor of the Legislative Assembly, welfare schemes should be implemented in the case deserved only. Development of Telangana State in all spheres must be the first aim of the present Congress Government. First of all, their responsibility is to adhere to financial discipline and avoid financial wastage, live a simple life by avoiding pomp and glory and to serve the people impartially. Let the Telangana State become No. 1 in India and a model for many countries in the world. References: 1. Amartya Sen: What China Could Teach India, Then and Now: The Citigroup & Asia Society Global Issues Series. 2. How to balance welfare and economic growth By Li Yiping (China Daily), Updated: 2016-01-22 09:27. 3. Indian National Congress (INC) Telangana Pradesh Congress Committee-Assembly Elections – 2023: Abhya Hastham (Manifesto). 4. Telangana Rythu Bharosa 5. Telangana Yuva Vikasam Scheme 6. https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/national/telangana-govt-releases-funds-for-key-schemes/article67637555.ece